Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2026-01-11 79153.794734 83570.185127 87987.875170 92735.328406 97689.677283 102704.285217 108160.393210
2026-01-18 71735.790519 78452.010994 85359.172408 92984.095915 101155.679860 109640.664051 119107.433906
2026-01-25 66435.695225 74717.496165 83423.493657 93238.196197 103975.007085 115343.674405 128271.419441
2026-02-01 62100.688650 71516.682296 81599.473370 93167.505131 106039.629071 119889.830803 135885.488339
2026-02-08 59074.532893 69449.663970 80738.835035 93888.005203 108733.836785 124926.746930 143873.993015
2026-02-15 56039.179124 67139.414607 79395.556393 93868.003015 110423.549515 128703.093396 150342.490922
2026-02-22 54199.453102 66045.855692 79297.920768 95138.003118 113469.075359 133927.183795 158393.347762
2026-03-01 52329.297848 64793.655929 78909.140156 95974.119645 115936.302307 138436.678631 165598.495602
2026-03-08 50127.254348 63035.475106 77827.972113 95907.909090 117276.132855 141589.709736 171202.288724
2026-03-15 48333.055349 61671.717626 77128.592343 96214.405887 118988.352706 145128.847578 177228.463778
2026-03-22 47335.933976 61209.037933 77449.076596 97688.442045 122048.460927 150230.127767 185091.323484
2026-03-29 46216.534207 60540.361432 77473.751209 98766.765849 124608.892249 154731.252516 192255.465822
2026-04-05 44921.181621 59619.829034 77169.742867 99437.322574 126688.175512 158692.295179 198839.890778
2026-04-12 43444.584328 58419.775319 76477.635517 99594.985075 128119.504546 161868.358739 204495.652445
2026-04-19 42104.809823 57340.696435 75889.384409 99839.795168 129626.259846 165118.316914 210240.858748
2026-04-26 40691.477845 56116.575632 75073.882639 99759.641515 130699.080784 167820.718752 215316.090203
2026-05-03 39754.730591 55468.928840 74951.531353 100520.201894 132795.326962 171766.052981 221918.310392
2026-05-10 38514.729439 54384.669800 74237.096507 100498.776536 133888.808949 174464.972883 226990.371522
2026-05-17 37950.022351 54162.667031 74606.206941 101841.335016 136691.174754 179281.784941 234700.430532
2026-05-24 37216.979356 53690.783898 74630.788769 102725.148237 138904.704144 183370.365207 241526.508022
2026-05-31 36114.449184 52690.553146 73937.858188 102655.159125 139882.966105 185904.900565 246416.487919
2026-06-07 35228.702817 51954.406310 73565.350856 102979.127340 141350.000980 189047.320297 252075.858747
2026-06-14 34888.261590 51945.436130 74140.876083 104537.046589 144409.001627 194212.542618 260312.653293